Topic: How Capital Markets Read China's Marketization Signals Heterogeneously: A High-Frequency Approach to Institutional Change
Speaker: YANG Ziyan, School of Economics, Xiamen University
Time: December 11, 2025, 15:30
Venue: EMS 366
Abstract:
How do capital markets interpret institutional signals from emerging market reforms? Existing measures are annual and irregular. We construct high-frequency marketization surprises from China's refined-oil price-adjustment mechanism, yielding exogenous variation comparable to Federal Reserve announcements. Analyzing international fund flows and domestic futures across observable and unobservable channels, we document systematic heterogeneity. Markets respond with opposite signs: reduced marketization triggers international outflows but generates positive domestic returns. Unobservable factors exhibit near-zero correlation, revealing different information processing. International effects strengthen over quarters while domestic effects dissipate immediately, exposing an unfavorable trade-off: interventions provide temporary domestic stability while triggering sustained international capital withdrawal.
Speaker Profile:
YANG Ziyan, Associate Professor and Doctoral Supervisor at the School of Economics, Xiamen University, holds a Ph.D. in Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Maryland. His research focuses on institutional economics, with findings published in leading academic journals such as Management World and the Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. He has received multiple provincial-level awards for outstanding achievements in social sciences.
He has presided over various research projects, including the National Natural Science Foundation of China General Program, Youth Program, the Ministry of Education Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Program, and the Fujian Provincial Social Science Planning Key Program on Marxism. His independently drafted policy recommendations have been adopted multiple times by the Provincial Party Committee Office and have received affirmative feedback from provincial and ministerial-level leaders.
In addition, he leads a National First-Class Undergraduate Course Construction Project and has been honored with the first prize of the National Teaching Achievement Award, the third prize in the National College Teachers’ Teaching Innovation Competition, and the first prize in the Fujian Provincial College Teachers’ Teaching Innovation Competition.
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